Recently, the silicone and related products market has shown different trends. Below is a review of last week's market performance and a forecast analysis for this week's trends.
Last week, the price of silicone DMC increased. On the cost side, the prices of metallic silicon and methanol remained stable, having little impact on DMC prices. Manufacturers reached a consensus to reduce production to maintain prices, which directly led to market price changes. On Tuesday and Wednesday, DMC prices increased. However, downstream markets reacted cautiously, mainly focusing on inventory digestion, with a weak acceptance of higher prices. At present, mainstream DMC prices are in the range of 13,400–13,800 CNY/ton.
With the increase in DMC prices, the prices of products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, compounded rubber, and silicone oil also rose. The strong price increases by the manufacturers further fueled the market's bullish sentiment, leading many production enterprises to raise their prices. However, the willingness of the downstream and end markets to purchase at high prices is not strong, and the market remains cautious.
Looking ahead to this week, although the market prices have rebounded, the digestion of previous price increases will take time. It is expected that DMC prices will remain stable in the short term.
Last week, the Chinese fumed silica market ran steadily, and enterprise quotes remained unchanged. Under the influence of the market atmosphere, the price of methyltrichlorosilane rose slightly, while the price of silicon tetrachloride remained at a high level.
Downstream enterprises mainly focused on digesting their previous inventory last week, and fumed silica production remained stable. Although downstream demand was limited, many pre-sale orders were received, so production primarily focused on order delivery.
As downstream enterprises gradually resume operations, the speed of inventory digestion will increase, leading to higher demand for fumed silica. Although supply is ample and supply-demand relationships are relatively stable, the market's overall price increase atmosphere will likely support the price of raw material methyltrichlorosilane. Overall, the fumed silica market is expected to show a strengthening trend.
Last week, the spot price of metallic silicon remained stable. After the Chinese New Year, market transactions recovered slowly, and there were significant differences in the expected prices between buyers and sellers, resulting in a cautious atmosphere.
On the supply side, the operating rates in southern regions remained low, with little change in production. Northern large factories have plans to resume production, with output expected to increase in March. Other manufacturers are operating normally, and overall production remains stable.
On the demand side, the number of maintenance units at silicone monomer factories increased, leading to a short-term expected decline in production and reduced demand for metallic silicon. The production of polysilicon factories remained stable, and the demand for metallic silicon stayed steady. The production of aluminum alloy companies gradually returned to normal, leading to a slight increase in demand for metallic silicon.
Due to the lack of significant recovery in downstream demand, there is insufficient upward price pressure. However, the recent increase in petroleum coke prices on the cost side has provided some support for metallic silicon prices. It is expected that spot prices for metallic silicon will remain stable at low levels in the short term.
Last week, the polysilicon market price remained stable, with only a few leading companies completing bulk transactions. Other companies mainly focused on executing prior orders, and the volume of new contracts was limited.
Regarding prices, only a few companies managed to increase prices for some orders, but the price increases have not widely spread to other companies. There is significant difficulty in reaching a consensus on price increases, and it will take some time for broader price hikes to be achieved.
At present, most companies are in a state of price stability, with a slight increase in order volume. Downstream purchasing sentiment remains moderate, but after receiving a large quantity of high-priced orders before the holidays, companies are now mainly taking a wait-and-see approach and only making some essential purchases.
It is worth noting that at present, there is a significant difference in market perception between leading enterprises and other companies. It is expected that the market will continue to experience a period of price stalemate, with increasing differences in transaction prices between enterprises.
(These quotes are for reference only and are not intended as trading advice. Specific quotes should be based on real-time prices provided by enterprises.)
